DeepSeek Broke Wall Street’s AI Mania Fever
When kicking off the brainstorming session for this essay, my intention was to talk about tariffs. The level of fear and unknown in the market rivals the early days of the pandemic. However, something else had been nagging me.
When kicking off the brainstorming session for this essay, my intention was to talk about tariffs. Wall Street had one of its worst two-day performances in history this past Thursday and Friday. The level of fear and unknown in the market rivals the early days of the pandemic. However, something else had been nagging me. Big Tech stocks had been acting strangely prior to the significant market cap losses experienced last week. Back in December 2024 and this past January, the surprise announcements from DeepSeek had a much larger psychological impact on Wall Street than consensus wanted to admit. Last week’s tariff news revealed how DeepSeek had already broken Wall Street’s AI mania fever.
This past Friday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent made waves by saying that Big Tech’s market rout one day prior wasn’t driven by tariff angst but rather carryover from DeepSeek. At a glance, Bessent’s comment seemed preposterous.
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The WSJ Was Right to Fire Its Tech Newsroom
In what were clearly decisions being pushed by editors, the WSJ embraced an anti-tech agenda that positioned Big Tech as the enemy of the people.
Earlier this month, the WSJ announced significant changes to its tech newsroom. A dozen tech reporters and long-serving editors were fired in a restructuring that amounted to a rethink of how it covers the tech industry. Those let go included beat reporters for Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft, AI, semiconductors, and video games. The new team, based in New York and overseen by Sarah Krouse who was most recently in charge of WSJ’s entertainment vertical, will jettison company-specific verticals. The changes are part of a larger shift that the WSJ undertook to win back lost relevancy and credibility.
WSJ CEO and publisher Almar Latour was somewhat up front in explaining the rationale behind disbanding the tech newsroom:
Increase engagement.
Grow readership.
Enhance quality.
In terms of the way the WSJ’s actions were covered by other tech-focused publications, moral outrage and virtue signaling were rampant.
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A Voice Head Fake
As we move into the second half of the 2020s and what still feels like AI mania, we seem to be on the inevitable path of relitigating the voice computing debate from the late 2010s.
As we move into the second half of the 2020s and what still feels like AI mania, we seem to be on the inevitable path of relitigating the voice computing debate from the late 2010s. The thinking is that the proliferation of LLMs has in some way addressed friction points that previously hamstringed digital voice assistants. This not only is a misreading of what occurred in the 2010s, but also lacks visionary thinking as to how we will use technology. I see the industry barreling towards another voice head fake.
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Apple News Is Winning
While it may feel like there aren’t many surprises left to uncover in the news industry, my local paper shows how we are probably still underestimating legacy media’s collapse. Apple News is looking like the right product at the right time to take advantage of such industry turmoil.
A few weeks ago, my local newspaper sold its operations to Hearst. The transaction was widely viewed by the community as a death sentence for the family-run operation with a 120-year history. As a sign of the times, the transaction meant my local paper would now be available in Apple News+ given Hearst’s existing arrangement with Apple. While it may feel like there aren’t many surprises left to uncover in the news industry, my local paper shows how we are probably still underestimating legacy media’s collapse. Apple News is looking like the right product at the right time to take advantage of such industry turmoil.
My local paper was not immune to the pressures and headwinds brought on by the digital era. Losing classifieds and advertising revenue to Facebook has been a decades-long development that no news publisher has an answer for. My local paper was able to survive, or so it seemed as recently as last month, by cost cutting and a willingness to make little to no profit. Behind closed doors, the paper was on a slow drift into irrelevancy. While digital distribution issues kneecapped the newspaper’s future, the slow brain drain caused the paper to implode from within. Writer and journalist quality was on a steady decline, leading to incorrect and biased reporting that didn’t capture hyper-localized issues and trends. If my local paper couldn’t even figure out how to satisfy that news niche, there wasn’t a reason for it to exist.
As frustrations with my local paper grew, my Apple News usage began to skyrocket.
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Nike Needs Its Next Michael Jordan
The uncomfortable truth is that today’s youth don’t have the same connection with sports that prior generations had.
In the seven months since I last wrote about Nike, the company has undergone some changes. Elliot Hill, a long-time Nike executive, came out of retirement to replace John Donahoe as CEO. After a 60-day observation period, which involved talking with Nike’s various stakeholders, Hill’s diagnosis was that Nike had lost its “obsession with sport.” In addition to revised marketing, more sales-focused endeavors will include reinvesting in its existing brands to create demand.
In recent weeks, two items in particular exemplified Nike’s course correction.
Nike’s website looked dramatically different in the run up to the Super Bowl. The first thing one saw was “BIG RINGS DON’T COME EASY” in reference to the game. A short scroll led to all of Nike’s classic brands. I previously pointed out that such an emphasis was what Nike needed to do.
Nike unveiled a 40th anniversary Air Jordan ad that stood out from what we had become accustomed to seeing with Nike. With a storyline focused on what would have happened if Nike didn’t pay fines associated with Michael Jordon wearing his Air Jordan 1s in NBA games, the company was able to show just how powerful and influential the brand has been on culture over the past three decades.
While the Air Jordan ad was effective in grabbing attention, it drew attention to how far Nike has fallen in recent years.
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Getting Consumers to Pay in Tech Is Underrated
Several Big Tech giants aren’t even at Netflix’s level in terms of getting consumers to pay for products and services. Such a reality raises a number of interesting implications to work through.
Last week, Netflix announced its latest round of subscription price increases. As usual, the hikes didn’t go over well on social media with the most common responses being either “I cancelled a few months ago” or something related to turning to piracy. I think both reactions underestimate what remains a legitimately impressive feat by Netflix: Getting more than 300 million people to pay for video content. Taking a step back, several Big Tech giants aren’t even at Netflix’s level in terms of getting consumers to pay for products and services. Such a reality raises a number of interesting implications to work through.
In 2024, Big Tech generated approximately $1.8 trillion of revenue.
Amazon: $661 billion (estimated)
Apple: $396 billion
Alphabet: $353 billion (estimated)
Microsoft: $262 billion
Meta: $165 billion
Of the $1.8 trillion, just 50% came directly from consumer purchases. This percentage was obtained by analyzing each company’s revenue streams and breaking out revenue that was directly attributable to consumer purchases.
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Meta Excels at Copying, but at What Cost?
Innovation is an intriguing word. Every tech company thinks of itself as an innovative leader while claiming innovation is in short supply at their competitors.
Innovation is an intriguing word. Every tech company thinks of itself as an innovative leader while claiming innovation is in short supply at their competitors. Last week, frustrated at continuing to need to go through Apple to reach his users, Mark Zuckerberg made the outlandish claim that Apple hasn’t innovated in decades. It’s an especially bold claim as Meta’s claim to innovation has been excelling at copying and then monetizing features from competitors.
When defining innovation, it may be tempting to associate the word with being first or different. For the past two decades, we have seen many tech companies approach innovation as a race.
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Big Tech Got Its Pivot in 2024
When reviewing 2024 from a technology perspective, it’s tempting to assume something related to AI must have been the story of the year.
When reviewing 2024 from a technology perspective, it’s tempting to assume something related to AI must have been the story of the year. After 18 months of talk, we began to see the first wave of consumer-facing AI features built in response to generative AI mania. However, such developments felt measured relative to a much larger event that took place in November. The U.S. presidential election, resulting in President Trump returning to the White House, was the event of the year for Big Tech. The election gave Big Tech a pivot that companies are now leveraging, some more publicly than others, to re-balance scales that had tilted against the world’s largest companies.
In 2023, the Digital Markets Act went into effect in the EU. It was as if a black hole had formed in the sense that rationality evaporated from the marketplace. I have been
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Bitcoin Is a Middle Finger to the Establishment
As generative AI mania matures, we find ourselves in something of a Bitcoin bonanza.
As generative AI mania matures, we find ourselves in something of a Bitcoin bonanza. Partially due to expectations of a friendlier regulatory and political environment, Bitcoin pricing has been bid up by 40% since the U.S. presidential election. There is no shortage of grand prognostications as to where Bitcoin pricing goes from here. Look deeper, and although the story’s allure with the mass market is up for debate, the past few months have led to the Bitcoin story becoming simpler.
Last decade, the Bitcoin narrative was a complicated one. There was no clear consensus as to how Bitcoin should be thought about. Some proponents thought it would be better for Bitcoin to be considered a currency. A world where we would purchase everyday goods and services using Bitcoin was imagined in some corners. Other Bitcoin supporters thought digital gold was a better comp for Bitcoin – a store of value that would provide a hedge against inflation. Neither story was convincing to the public.
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Elon Musk’s Influence Was Misjudged
Musk is taking advantage of the generational shift in how we consume news to put his thumb on the news scale to suit his own (political) interests.
The past few years have been a whirlwind in social media land. Our experiences online pre-pandemic feel like a generation ago. The rise of short-form video has not only transformed the social media giants (Instagram, YouTube), but also pushed video on what had been text-first platforms. Elon Musk’s Twitter purchase in 2022, which many predicted to not pan out, continues to be misjudged based on its subsequent influence. It is not an understatement to say X was the pivotal factor in the 2024 U.S. presidential election. The defining driver behind this development: Elon Musk.
One reason why Tesla is such a difficult company to analyze is that one ends up needing to analyze Elon Musk. It’s not an easy task. While I am keenly aware of the key man / woman risk being overstated, there is no denying that Musk is single-handily determining Tesla’s key strategic decisions and direction. As it pertains to X, formerly Twitter, a similarly overpowering presence by Musk is apparent. Partly out of necessity as large advertisers moved away from the platform, X embraced paid subscriptions. The company also dropped what had been Twitter’s highly controversial content moderation policies that followed partisan lines. As someone who used Twitter during the 2016, 2020, and 2024 presidential elections, the most recent campaign felt and looked different on X. Not only was President Trump’s account reinstated, but a wide selection of accounts that had been banned in the years leading up to Musk’s takeover were reinstated and active. From my vantage point, both sides of the political aisle were adequately represented on X, which was not the case pre-Musk, although the claim is somewhat subjective given the X algorithm.
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Why Apple Is Tripling Down on the Mac
Apple’s Mac line has never been stronger.
Apple’s Mac line has never been stronger. Thanks to Apple Silicon, Apple is pushing the Mac forward with industry-leading power efficiency and hardware redesigns that are resonating with tens of millions of customers. It’s a dramatic turn of events for a product category that seemed positioned to play second fiddle to mobile devices a decade ago. We are seeing Apple place a big bet that the Mac will remain a critical machine for the 1% of users creating content for the other 99% of users. Implications of this bet extend across Big Tech. Competitors have begun to worry as the Mac is increasingly becoming the machine for handling the industry’s “pro” workflows.
In the 2010s, a riveting debate surrounded the relationship between mobile devices and laptops and desktops.
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Big Tech Should Embrace Trump’s Pro-America Platform
Earlier this week, President Trump won a second presidential term in a blowout election. The signs were there all along that such a result was likely. Big Tech sure seemed to anticipate such a result.
Earlier this week, President Trump won a second presidential term in a blowout election. The signs were there all along that such a result was likely. Big Tech sure seemed to anticipate such a result.
The past four years have been alarming to Big Tech as the U.S. lost geopolitical and regulatory standing on the global stage. President Trump’s pro-America platform offers Big Tech a reset opportunity, and it should be utilized. This will likely lead to business model changes involving data collection and content curation and delivery (less moderation) and a stark rethink of where the U.S. should stand in the global supply chain (more manufacturing in the U.S.).
While Big Tech’s standing against various U.S. regulatory and antitrust battles was always stronger than consensus assumed, it became clear in recent years that the battle Big Tech was up against was not going to be a fair one. Instead of propping up
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Video Podcasts Are Having a Moment
The U.S. presidential election has put a spotlight on video podcasts. On both sides of the aisle, video podcasts are being leveraged to gain an edge by connecting with voters.
The U.S. presidential election has put a spotlight on video podcasts. On both sides of the aisle, video podcasts are being leveraged to gain an edge by connecting with voters. The various implications arising from this change are significant and include everything from video podcasts breathing new momentum into the podcast medium to the role media is playing in our lives continuing to evolve.
This past Friday, Joe Rogan had former President and current Republican Presidential Candidate Donald Trump on his “The Joe Rogan Experience” podcast for the first time. The three-hour discussion has been described as the longest campaign interview Trump has given. The podcast appearance came after Trump went on a non-trivial number of other (less popular relative to Rogan) video podcasts that in retrospect were warmup to the main event. Rogan retains the top spot on the U.S. podcast charts. Three days later, the podcast episode has 37 million views on YouTube.
Trump hasn’t been alone in betting on video podcasts.
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Something Has Changed With the Tesla Community
The most interesting takeaways and observations from Tesla’s “We, Robot” event weren’t from the event itself, but rather from what unfolded after the event.
Last week, Tesla held its highly anticipated robotaxi event. From an analytical perspective, there wasn’t a whole lot to talk about. The event was geared more toward building aspirations and dreams than unveiling concrete product strategy.
The most interesting takeaways and observations weren’t from the event itself, but rather from what unfolded after the event.
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Passive Investing’s Impact on Big Tech Is Being Underestimated
Big Tech has seen about $4.5 trillion of market capitalization gains since January. While the move has led to some valuation diehards, usually those in academia, becoming louder in opposition to the move, the role passive investing is playing in Big Tech’s rise is flying under the radar.
Big Tech continues to have a very strong year on Wall Street. On a collective basis, Big Tech has seen about $4.5 trillion of market capitalization gains since January. While the move has led to some valuation diehards, usually those in academia, becoming louder in opposition to the move, the role passive investing is playing in Big Tech’s rise is flying under the radar.
Thanks to passive investing, Big Tech is receiving a non-trivial amount of demand on Wall Street and in the process has become a proxy for the global economy. Big Tech market capitalization gains (and losses) are increasingly following broader stock market sentiment. This change has a few significant consequences that aren’t receiving much attention.
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Apple vs. Meta Is the New iOS vs. Android
Zuckerberg has spent the past few years trying to start a new kind of tech holy war with Apple. At least based on what’s unfolding on social media, Zuckerberg’s wish is coming true.
Last week, Meta held its Connect 2024 developer conference. During the keynote, Mark Zuckerberg unveiled Orion, Meta’s AR glasses prototype. Seeing that the device had no viable path to market, Zuckerberg decided to turn it into a prototype project. That decision was part of a broader Meta PR strategy aimed at one company: Apple. Zuckerberg has spent the past few years trying to start a new kind of tech holy war with Apple. At least based on what’s unfolding on social media, Zuckerberg’s wish is coming true.
It's been years since we have seen anything like the iOS vs. Android battle of the early smartphone years.
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Amazon’s CEO Is Getting Skewered
Amazon is in a tough situation as the company is suffering from legitimate issues, and what appear to be genuine attempts to address those issues are now generating backlash.
Amazon can’t seem to catch a break. Earlier this week, Amazon released an employee memo from CEO Andy Jassy regarding a series of noteworthy company changes that will be undertaken, including a full return to office (five days a week) mandate. The internet was not pleased. Consensus quickly went after Jassy, and calls for his resignation, which have been quietly bubbling for the past year, are getting louder. Amazon is in a tough situation as the company is suffering from legitimate issues, and what appear to be genuine attempts to address those issues are now generating backlash.
A few weeks ago, we talked about how something wasn’t sitting right with me regarding Amazon.
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Consensus Is Still Underestimating Wearables
While Big Tech finally understands wearables are a thing and they need to have an answer for it, there isn’t widespread realization of just how big the revolution is trending.
Last week, I traveled to Apple Park to take in Apple’s “It’s Glowtime” event. Apple unveiled a long list of HW and some SW updates across the iPhone, Apple Watch, and AirPods lines. When considering the totality of the announcements and their implications, the event was the strongest September event Apple has put together in years. Among the top of the news items were Apple Watch and AirPods updates. The updates spoke to a tech subtheme in 2024: Wearables are gaining momentum, and consensus is still underestimating what is unfolding.
This year’s Apple Watch and AirPods updates could have been put into one of two buckets:
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Founder Mode Is Actually Design Mode
Paul Graham’s essay only scratched the surface regarding why certain companies succeed while others don’t.
Paul Graham, of Y Combinator notoriety, made waves this week with his latest essay. In some ways, it felt like we were back in the early 2010s when blogging was still a thing. The short essay, “Founder Mode,” introduced Graham’s theory on what sets certain companies apart from others. The theory itself was bare bones, which Graham admitted was partially due to the lack of existing research on the topic.
Graham’s Founder Mode is inspired by a private talk that Airbnb co-founder and CEO Brian Chesky recently gave at Y Combinator. Graham didn’t link to the talk, leaving one to conclude it was private. That led some to seek out public Chesky interview clips on managerial strategy that likely approximated his Y Combinator talk. Chesky later indirectly confirmed one such video clip was the basis for Founder Mode.
According to Chesky, three things set founders apart:
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Our Memories Are Under Attack
Thanks to mobile cameras, we have never had better tools at our disposal for capturing memories as they occur. Generative AI is now threatening those memories.
Last week, Procreate, a popular art studio app for iPad, made waves by declaring it was not going to introduce any generative AI into its products. According to James Cuda, Procreate’s CEO and co-founder, the decision amounted to being “on the right path supporting human creativity.” The stance stood in stark contrast to what we have seen from Big Tech. We are witnessing a broader conflict surrounding the positioning of technology against humanity. Ultimately, the battle is for our memories.
Over the past year, we have twice talked about my fears associated with AI. Last October, we looked at how Google Pixel’s photo editing features made me nervous. More recently, in May, we referenced how the downsides associated with AI harming imagination were significant. As more industry players point out these concerns, the outlines of where the debate is found are appearing.
A question that some are grappling with is whether or not generative AI amounts to Photoshop and Procreate on steroids. Are we ultimately debating what are enhanced editing and creativity features?
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