How Google Lost Its Antitrust Case to the U.S.
Google had a thin line to walk in going up against the U.S. government.
For the second time in eight months, Google lost an antitrust case in the U.S. Following the December 2023 loss to Epic Games, which was more embarrassing than anything for Google, the search giant gave the U.S. government its first antitrust win as part of its anti-Big Tech crusade.
Google had a thin line to walk in going up against the U.S. government. The company needed to talk up its search acumen, but not so much as to imply that no other company could realistically compete. If the court ran with a narrow relevant product market – which it ended up doing – Google would have even less room to breathe. There is no denying that Google holds a monopoly in general search. While holding ~90% market share is legal, the practices and behavior used to retain that 90% market share can be found to be illegal.
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Something Is Wrong With Amazon
While Amazon's quarterly earnings may appear fine, a few things about the company have turned unsettling to me.
At least based on the most recent quarterly earnings report, Amazon appears to be doing fine. People are buying more goods through Prime, the company’s digital advertising business contains plenty of promise, and AWS has no obvious flaws. However, a few things about Amazon have turned unsettling to me. Amazon’s retail customer service has become downright atrocious while its Alexa ecosystem of devices is proving to be more of a hindrance than asset when thinking of where computing is headed. Risk factors such as these represent a threat to Amazon’s grip on consumers that management needs to address.
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Big Tech Should Be Spending Big on AI
It is OK that Big Tech is pouring huge amounts of cash into AI-focused capex.
As I am one of the more outspoken critics of generative AI mania, the following statement may come as a surprise: It is OK that Big Tech is pouring huge amounts of cash into AI-focused capex. I would go so far as to say that Big Tech is doing the right thing. While Wall Street and Silicon Valley are still grappling with how generative AI will be used by the masses, the big picture regarding how AI will eventually come to define all computing is flying under the radar. Big Tech capex exploding higher is a necessity, and free cash flow projections need to be reexamined as a result.
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Magic Leap’s Last Leap
The writing is on Magic Leap’s wall.
The writing is on Magic Leap’s wall. The company that captured the hearts and minds of journalists and VCs in the 2010s is on its last legs. If the company is not able to become a components supplier for more capable companies dabbling in spatial computing, we are likely seeing Magic Leap’s final chapter being written.
Magic Leap’s slow but steady slide into irrelevance is on one level predictable. A company void of a design-led culture and lacking an ecosystem of services, users, devices, and a retail store footprint was always going to struggle with AR/VR. Since we are dealing with devices worn over the eyes, AR/VR is inherently a wearables vertical, which requires a set of knowledge and acumen that Magic Leap lacked.
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Nike’s Complacency
Nike has become a show-me story.
For those with an interest in business and branding, Nike is one of the more intriguing stories to follow in 2024. It’s an iconic brand with decades of experience left reeling by a marketplace penalizing complacency. Two weeks ago, Nike experienced its worst day on Wall Street with shares falling 20% and now trading at the same level as they were in 2018. Looking under the hood, Nike has become a show-me story as management continues to pledge to rethink most parts of the business. The company has no choice but to embrace technology as its future path places it in line with Big Tech’s inevitable march.
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Big Tech Is Winning Over Wall Street
While Wall Street remains fully engrossed by NVIDIA, there is a story to be told that is flying under the radar.
While Wall Street remains fully engrossed by NVIDIA, there is a story to be told that is flying under the radar. With several key macro headwinds now in the rearview mirror, Wall Street has turned decidedly more optimistic on Big Tech (a bucket that I have long defined as including Apple, Alphabet, Meta, Amazon, Microsoft). Big Tech as a group is up 28% in 2024 while the S&P 500 is up 15%.
Here are Big Tech market caps, with NVIDIA added in for good measure:
Microsoft: $3.3T
Apple: $3.2T
NVIDIA: $3.0T
Alphabet: $2.3T
Amazon: $2.0T
Meta: $1.3T
A couple things jump out at me about those totals.
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The NBA’s Spectacular Win
The NBA’s media rights auction is shaping up to be a resounding win for the league.
Live sports are in a weird place. Through a certain lens, sports look to be performing amazingly well. Stadiums are packed, and admission pricing is moving higher. The content has become a lifeline for cable and increasingly paid video streaming. And yet, through a different lens, there is reason to be worried about live sports’ future as younger generations have trouble connecting with the entertainment. The debate as to which scenario deserves more attention will continue. However, what has become increasingly clear is that the most popular sports leagues, like the National Basketball Association (NBA), are leveraging the current video landscape to extract massive pricing power. The NBA’s widely followed media rights auction is shaping up to be a resounding win for the league while the winning bidders are left facing big questions.
One way of describing NBA ratings: tough slog.
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The Windows Brigade’s Last Stand
We are seeing the Window brigade’s last stand in trying to go up against the Mac.
The Windows gang is back at it, or so we are led to believe. Over the past few weeks, Microsoft and partners have tried to put together a coherent plan to win back mind and market share from the Mac. I am left unimpressed with both their attempt and odds of success. The reality is, we are likely seeing the Window brigade’s last stand in trying to go up against the Mac.
It's been a busy past few weeks in PC land. Last month, Microsoft held its Build developer conference. One day prior, the company hosted an event where it unveiled Copilot+ PCs. The refreshed branding refers to PCs containing Copilot + Windows + NPUs (neural processing units). At the event, Microsoft rolled out one partner after another to reiterate how an intelligence revolution has kicked off a new era for the PC with Microsoft as the conductor. Jump ahead a few weeks, and we saw many of the same companies talk up AI and PCs again at Computex Taipei. This time around, other companies, like Qualcomm, positioned themselves as kicking off a new PC era. Tooting one’s horn is prevalent in awkward partnership relationships.
Dive a bit deeper, and the message being pushed by the Windows brigade (Microsoft, Qualcomm, AMD, Intel, Dell, Samsung, Asus, Acer, HP, Lenovo) is that generative AI has given them a new path to compete against long-time foe, Apple. The message isn’t convincing. Microsoft kept its (suspicious) comparisons between Copilot+ PCs and Macs to the entry-level M3 chip and MacBook Air. Moving beyond the performance comparisons, Microsoft’s attempts to sell the mass market on generative AI have not been impressive. There has been a notable post-pandemic sales lull across the PC industry that has impacted the Mac as well. AI is being put out there as the carrot to entice hardware upgrading. Many of the AI-infused features that were supposedly going to anchor interest in Copilot+ PCs are highly suspect. Microsoft was forced to backtrack on Recall, one of the marquee features for Copilot+ PCs, turning the feature to opt-in instead of the original opt-out. The change severely reduces the feature’s potency. Meanwhile, Microsoft’s bet on generative media to help one’s imaginative and creative processes is demoralizing.
It's difficult to see where or how the Windows brigade finds traction against the Mac. The consumer market is a lost cause. In the mid-2010s, Surface events were met with buzz and chatter as vocal Mac loyalists wanted to show their frustration with the state of Mac (MacBook Pro and Mac Pro to be exact). Whatever mind share Surface had been able to win from Apple in the 2010s has firmly reverted to the Mac and iPad. Today, it is more likely to see PC loyalists admit Apple is releasing the best all-around laptops. There is still a major advantage found with one company controlling HW/SW/Services. We now see the computing frontier shift to spatial computing which Microsoft, despite years of trying, has not been able to crack with consumers in mind. More worrying for the company, there is no evidence that Microsoft understands what consumers want or need. Gaming had been an outlier in this regard, but even there I would argue it has become complicated as Microsoft has been forced to use M&A to keep mind share.
The Windows brigade is fighting a battle that may very well be their last stand against the Mac. Unlike in the 2010s, there are very few pockets of discontent Mac users they could try to leverage into a market opening. Apple is in the much better position to solidify support among creative verticals, a segment Microsoft had tried to turn to once consumer momentum evaporated. Microsoft’s and Qualcomm’s fascination with competing against the Mac is misplaced. While they may want to go on the offense against the Mac, their resources are needed to establish better defensive lives to prevent the Mac from taking enterprise market share. The Windows brigade should instead aim their renewed sales pitch at PC loyalists who haven’t shown flirtatious tendencies with the Mac. The problem with such a strategy is that it amounts to cutting your losses and admitting the Mac is winning.
One factor that the Windows brigade underestimated was the degree to which a multi-product ecosystem would impact laptop and desktop preference and usage. It hasn’t helped that the line between enterprise and consumer continues to blur. Apple ecosystem momentum on the consumer side is translating into enterprise momentum. Someone invested in the Apple ecosystem with an iPhone, Apple Watch, and a few Apple services, is far more likely to want to remain in the Apple ecosystem for work. In addition, Apple has gotten better at learning enterprise – it helps that enterprise has been trending towards consumer more so than the other way around.
Since Apple doesn’t compete at the low-end of markets, the Windows brigade will still have room to sell product. We are not going to see PC shipments fall to zero. However, from a mind share perspective, there is no convincing argument to be made that things can be turned around. Instead, the ball is in Apple’s court for determining just how aggressive it wants to be in going after PC share in enterprise.
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The Paid Video Renaissance Is Maturing
We are entering the next stage in which efficiency will be the word.
We still find ourselves in a paid video streaming renaissance. A significant amount of high-quality scripted content is available at our fingertips without the need for complicated contracts and subscriptions. However, it increasingly doesn’t feel like we are still in the golden age of streaming. The parade of sizeable price increases, combined with streamers leaning on tried-and-tested practices from the big cable bundle era, have removed some of the magic from the equation. Instead of this change boding poorly for the video streaming industry, it is more likely a sign of the video renaissance maturing. We are entering the next stage in which efficiency will be the word.
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AI Event Optics Tell a Story
In some ways, OpenAI and Google are polar opposites.
Last week, the 2024 spring cycle of tech events kicked off in earnest. OpenAI livestreamed a “Spring Update” event, and Google held its annual developer conference. As expected, some of my AI fears, which we discussed in last week’s essay, came to fruition. Another thing that jumped out at me was the juxtaposition found with the two AI-infused events. A closer look at event optics provides a story underlying AI mania.
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AI Fears
Apple’s new “Crush” iPad ad elicited strong reactions on social media, to the point of Apple issuing an apology.
Last week, Apple held a virtual event to unveil refreshed iPad Airs, iPad Pros, a new M4 chip, and a few updated iPad accessories and apps. To show off the iPad Pro’s new redesign, Apple created an ad in-house showing a hydraulic press crushing an assortment of (older) creative tools including a piano, guitar, and paint cannisters into the new iPad Pro. The “Crush” iPad ad elicited strong reactions on social media, to the point of Apple issuing an apology. One of the arguments against the ad was that given today’s AI mania and fears of content creation behind under attack, showing the destruction of tools that symbolize human’s creativity was tone deaf. While such AI fears are legitimate, the attacks are misplaced.
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Peloton’s Fix-It CEO Quits
After two years at the helm, Peloton CEO Barry McCarthy resigned last week. With no success at reigniting growth, McCarthy left the initiative to his Peloton co-workers to figure out - at least those who will survive yet another round of layoffs. The Peloton story has been a fascinating one to watch, both on the way up and down. Most of McCarthy’s product ideas were at odds with where the connected fitness industry is headed, dooming any chance he had at proving Peloton could become a larger company.
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The Battle for Our Meals
A local grocer whose family had been in the business for 80 years closed his doors last week. It’s been the talk of the town since the news first broke. Similar stories aren’t that difficult to find elsewhere. In an attempt to console the community, the owner had an interesting story to tell as to why his family was calling it quits. They were in a battle for meals and losing to on-demand food delivery apps. The idea has been stuck in my head as it’s a great example of how software is changing the fabric of the communities that we live in.
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Holes Begin to Appear in AI Hype
Last week was a strange one in the consumer gadgets space. A debate involving the most popular tech gadget reviewer and product review ethics generated days of buzz and attention. Given how quickly the news cycle moves these days, such longevity jumped out at me. However, the most valuable takeaways and insights from the ordeal seem to have been glossed over. As the first wave of AI-infused consumer gadgets from start-ups come on the scene, AI hype is starting to face reality, and holes are appearing.
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Spotify Is Being Pulled in Different Directions
Deep down, Spotify wants to be the YouTube of audio. Daniel Ek has long been intrigued with the idea of controlling a marketplace where a seemingly infinite amount of user-generated content is matched with a billion customers. Such a goal requires a full-fledged journey into advertising. However, in recent quarters, Spotify has been pulled in a different direction.
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Sonos Moving Into Headphones Is Intriguing
As consumer hardware startups pivot to AI to find market traction, Sonos is quietly flying under the radar with its own upcoming consumer HW device. All signs point to the speaker company soon branching out into wearables with a premium pair of wireless over-ear headphones. While the headphones market has seen significant growth and adoption since Apple pushed the space into the spotlight in the mid-2010s, headphones are still being underestimated in some respects.
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The U.S. Government’s Weak Hand Against Big Tech Antitrust
Earlier this week, the U.S. government unveiled its long-awaited antitrust complaint against Apple. This followed previously unveiled antitrust cases against Meta (2020), Amazon (2023), and Google (2020), which are in different stages of playing out in court. There is one commonality found among the complaints: the U.S. government is struggling to get around the fact that Big Tech plays in competitive markets.
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The TikTok Bill’s Uncomfortable Truth
Just when they thought they were out of the political woods, TikTok got a rude awakening this week as the U.S. House passed a bill that would essentially ban TikTok in the U.S. While President Biden has indicated his interest in signing the bill into law, the Senate may end up being TikTok’s saving grace. The bill raises several questions for me as to what Washington is doing. More importantly, the TikTok bill highlights an uncomfortable truth found with a new tier of influence brokers.
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The Big Tech Rotation of 2024
Things are getting strange. On social media, a feeling of angst has taken over the tech space. Apple and Tesla are said to be on the ropes while calls for Google replacing its CEO are on the rise. Other companies, including Meta and Microsoft, are riding PR highs. AI mania continues to add chaos to the mix. Oh, and Bitcoin is back at all-time highs. The signs support the theory that we are seeing a Big Tech rotation unfolding on Wall Street with carryover effects spilling over into Silicon Valley.
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AI Mania Is in Full Swing
It’s been intriguing to watch Wall Street and Silicon Valley become enamored by AI. Seemingly every week, we are met with the latest and greatest advancements made possible by AI models. ChatGPT may need to pass the baton over to Sora in terms of capturing hearts and minds. While all may seem well, AI mania is hiding a growing problem involving technology once again outpacing design.
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Subscriber Privileges and Benefits
Receive Exclusive Essays. The cornerstone of an Inside Orchard subscription is access to Neil’s weekly essays on the latest developments in the technology industry. Weekly essays are ~1,000 words and sent via email. Essays revolve around the following topics: technology industry analysis, business model analysis, technology’s impact on societal and consumer trends. Create a free profile to read a few sample essays.
Access Exclusive Private Podcast. Listen to Inside Orchard essays via an exclusive private podcast. After becoming a member, all previously-published podcast episodes become available in your favorite podcast player. Podcast episodes never become available to the public.
Inside Orchard Support. Play an active role in supporting Inside Orchard as an independent source of analysis and perspective. Inside Orchard is 100% supported by its subscribers.