Competition Is Intensifying in Tech
Based on regulators’ and lawmakers’ comments, the tech giants are unstoppable because they don’t have to worry about competition. Meanwhile, a long list of smaller competitors are said to face major growth hurdles due to built-in advantages that the giants have given themselves.
The past few months have shown such narratives about competition are crumbling apart. Unfortunately, it doesn’t seem like those tasked with ensuring proper competition is present in markets are paying attention.
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Elon Musk Buys Twitter
It’s been quite the April for Elon Musk. Within just three weeks, Musk went from disclosing that he had spent months quietly amassing a 9% stake in Twitter, to accepting and then turning down a Twitter board seat, to finally having Twitter’s board accept his hostile takeover bid for $44 billion.
Musk buying Twitter is a big deal for a few reasons:
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Twitter’s Awful Week
Twitter finds itself between a rock and a hard place. With Elon Musk now as its largest shareholder, Twitter’s CEO and its board are wholly unprepared for handling the accompanying unknown. This became visible this past week as Twitter made one questionable move after another. The uncomfortable truth now needs to be discussed: Twitter has a leadership problem.
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Elon Musk vs. the Twitter Algorithm
Earlier today, Elon Musk revealed that he had quietly amassed a 9% stake in Twitter valued at nearly $4 billion. The news kicked off a whirlwind of speculation as to Musk’s plans. While the investment was deemed passive, that distinction has already proved meaningless given some of Musk’s recent tweets.
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The Absurdity Known as the Digital Markets Act
For the past two years, the European Commission has been formulating a series of regulations aimed at curtailing the tech giants in its 27 member states. Last week, the Digital Markets Act reached a finalized draft stage. While additional steps are needed before the end is reached, we are at a point where the major points of contention have been determined with implementation set to begin later this year. We are seeing the equivalent of the tech giants being taken hostage and told to both open their platforms to perfectly capable competitors and ensure that these same competitors don’t abuse their opportunities to harm consumers. It’s absurdity. There is no other way to describe what we are seeing. Customers in the EU don’t stand to benefit from the regulations. And as we will discuss shortly, a good argument can be made that the giants will be able to navigate the legislation without losing much, if any, momentum in the impacted countries.
At the heart of the issue is EU officials viewing the giants, or so called “gatekeepers,” as blocking or preventing smaller competitors from getting a fair shake.
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The Electric Car’s Moment Is Delayed (Again)
While much of Silicon Valley remains infatuated with crypto, NFTs, and the metaverse, Wall Street has been lusting over electric vehicles (EVs). In an industry that has experienced a major sales contraction due to supply issues, EV growth of nearly 90% in 2021 has been positioned as nirvana. Legacy auto makers look at EV as an answer to finding relevancy while EV startups are finding it easier than ever to raise new capital. However, not all is bright in EV land.
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Tech’s Growing Ability to Wage Economic Warfare
In the weeks following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, two wars have been waged:
Military (missiles, air strikes, tanks, drones, deaths, injuries, POWs)
Economic (asset seizures, currency pressure, business/export/import bans)
The economic war against Russia is being conducted solely because of Russia’s military invasion of Ukraine. We have seen an unprecedented response from the corporate world in pausing / halting operations in Russia indefinitely. While most of the announcements have been publicly tied to opposition to the Ukraine invasion, others were assumed to be driven by unattractive business conditions tied to currency volatility. In many instances, it ends up being a financially better decision to close shops or offices rather than keep them open.
Concerns remain elevated that we are witnessing a new global order take shape pinning countries and alliances against each other, both militarily and economically.
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Why Amazon 4-Star Stores Failed
One of the clearest trends unfolding in tech has been the gradual shift from brick and mortar to e-commerce. However, there is one question associated with the shift that Amazon appears to be struggling to answer. What happens to brick and mortar in an e-commerce world? Some of the world’s largest retailers (Target, Walmart, and Costco) consider their web of physical stores to be an asset when competing with Amazon. Given its own flirtation with brick and mortar, Amazon appears to agree with such an assessment.
This is why news from last week that Amazon pulled the plug on dozens of its 4-star stores along with its traditional bookstores caught my attention. The move was announced as part of a broader shift that will see Amazon concentrate its brick and mortar bets on grocery and clothing. In assessing the chances of success for such a shift, we need to see what went wrong with Amazon’s 4-star stores.
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Live Tweeting a War
Ten years ago, the Arab Spring showed us the power found with digital town squares. Social media could be leveraged to organize both people and information like never before. A few years later, the Facebook / Cambridge Analytica scandal opened society’s eyes to how our data can be weaponized to alter how we interact and engage with digital town squares.
With Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, we are seeing the start of a new social media chapter.
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Live Sports Is in a Weird Place Right Now
The Super Bowl serves as an annual reminder of what live sports used to be. While approximately 100 million people still tune into the Super Bowl, the motivation behind watching has changed. A declining number of watchers are even aware of which teams are playing each year. The Super Bowl is instead still able to grab interest by reminding people what it was like to have everyone watch the same live event. There is then irony found with Super Bowl ads, which are more likely to be seen on YouTube than during the actual game, appealing to people who have otherwise eschewed video advertising altogether by paying for streaming services.
There are two ways of looking at live sports.
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TikTok Is Blowing up the Status Quo
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Last week, Meta’s Mark Zuckerberg sounded the alarm. TikTok was successfully taking engagement share away from his most-prized pieces of digital real estate: Facebook and Instagram. What had been theorized about for some time is now being discussed out in the open, and we may see others follow Zuckerberg in sending out SOS signals. Companies ranging from Spotify and Netflix to Roku are likely feeling TikTok pressure to some extent. Management teams just haven’t come to grips with such reality.
TikTok’s “secret sauce” is grabbing a shocking amount of viewer data in order to power a recommendation engine that puts YouTube’s algorithm to shame. Depending on how you interact with a particular 15 or 60-second video clip, subsequent video clips are then tailored to keep you wanting more. It’s not even so much about giving you the same video genre over and over either, which would likely lead to burnout. Instead, there is almost a natural ebb and flow to the video clips that keeps you engaged. TikTok’s video recommendations are so good that users are altering their daily content consumption habits because they have so much trouble moving off platform.
TikTok is blowing up the status quo by altering the entire content consumption space. Time that used to go to Facebook, Instagram, Netflix, gaming, and sleep is flowing to TikTok. Google and Facebook, seeing the risk that TikTok posed to their business, quickly released me-too products, YouTube Shorts and Reels, respectively. Each appears to be doing well based on management disclosure. The problem is, they aren’t slowing TikTok but rather cannibalizing existing attention and engagement that was already on YouTube and Facebook/Instagram.
Getting us to swipe through literally hundreds of 60 second or shorter video clips in one sitting is on one level frightening and another level disheartening. Attention spans are dwindling to the point that a multi-minute video is now considered too long. More worrying, we are seeing short-form video take the worst of social media and then be amplified.
“I saw it on TikTok” has become synonymous with false information and rumors. Thanks to the all-powerful recommendation engines powering short-form video platforms, problematic clips are spread to millions of people even more efficiently and quickly than we are accustomed to on social media.
Some video filters for short clips serve no purpose other than to make people feel bad about themselves.
Imitation art has always been a thing with which we turn to celebrities for ways of imitating them. Today, this has changed to the point of doing whatever some random person did on TikTok simply because it went viral. If a clip of a young person having a mental breakdown in a car while taping themselves goes viral, others feel they need to do something similar, all in an attempt to also go viral.
It’s not that these worrying trends were absent on YouTube, Facebook, or Instagram. Instead, short-form video is social media on steroids.
The larger implications found with TikTok’s growing popularity involve how we consume both music and video. One reason why movie theaters don’t have a future is that the entire movie medium is under threat. The number of people willing to spend more than two hours watching a story unfold is declining. We have precedent for what is happening to long-form video when looking at the music industry. Technology has negatively impacted music as an art form. The move from album sales to downloads of individual songs that could be purchased on a standalone basis transformed the music industry. Most people today would be surprised to hear how a music album consisted of songs arranged in a way as to tell a story. Trying to figure out how to even listen to an album in song order is now a question posted in technical support forums. Music is now being equated to 15-second jingles that make for good TikToks.
Some may say that I am overreacting and simply afraid of the change found with short-form video. A few months back, I published a tweet saying short-form video will not lead to a good place. The product lead for YouTube Shorts responded by saying short-form video is additive to storytelling, specifically storytelling “powered by a collective of creators” around the same concept. I wasn’t convinced.
As for how companies will respond to the status quo being changed, there is reason to think not many will find answers. In a sign of Wall Street facing anxiety as to what may be unfolding in the content space, Netflix and Disney saw their market caps decline by a combined $250 billion from peak share prices. While both companies have since seen rebounds in their share prices, the amount of unknown surrounding business models in the scripted video space hasn’t gone away. Some are questioning just what the end goal may be in all of this. Is Netflix actually that different from Instagram in terms of needing to grab our time and attention to do well? What about Spotify’s bet on podcasting turning out not to be so much about pulling people away from Apple Music but keeping them off of TikTok? These questions begin to scratch the surface of how TikTok has blown up the status quo in terms of conventional wisdom as to where the competitive battle lines are actually drawn. We are moving to the point that the more powerful TikTok becomes, the more likely we are to see content consumption behavior change to boost TikTok (and short-form video in general) further.
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Tribalism in Content Distribution Will Intensify
For the first time, Spotify may be discovering the limits of all press is good press. Some look at the current Spotify vs. Neil Young vs. Joe Rogan saga as a battle involving freedom of speech. Others think it’s more of a censorship dilemma. With Spotify choosing to platform Rogan despite Young’s ultimatum, a move that everyone saw coming, the company finds itself taking on a new kind of pushback - one around company ethics, morals, or the lack of. Spotify and Rogan responded to the latest controversy with Spotify saying it was OK with Rogan’s content and Rogan pledging to have more diverse guests – a notable admission from Rogan.
Netflix went through a smaller episode last year when backlash erupted over comments made by Dave Chapelle on one of his comedy specials that aired on Netflix.
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Microsoft’s Growing Bet on Gaming
It may be tempting for an outsider to dismiss gaming as a hobby for Microsoft. Doing so would make it difficult to understand the company’s multi-decade bet on gaming. Reported within the same business segment as Windows and Surface, gaming is about twice as large of a business as Surface when looking at revenue. One can argue from a mindshare perspective that the difference is much larger. Prior to Microsoft correctly pulling the plug on its brick and mortar stores, proponents had argued that the stores should be kept open just to showcase Xbox.
Last week, Microsoft announced its intention to buy Activision Blizzard in a $68.7 billion all-cash deal.
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The Spotify and Roku Squeeze
Spotify and Roku have a lot more in common than meets the eye (and ear). Both companies are fascinated with advertising-driven business models in which listener and viewer time and engagement is monetized via delivering ads. Roku is much further along in its advertising pursuit. Nearly 90% of Roku’s revenue is generated by ads while just 10% of Spotify revenue is from ads. However, both companies have signaled that advertising is where their growth and momentum will be found.
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ESPN’s Staying Power
The new year started out with a bang in the digital media space. Last week, the New York Times announced that it was buying The Athletic, widely considered to be the most intriguing sports media start-up, for $550 million in cash.
The deal does not look to come at a time of strength for The Athletic. Rumors from just a few months ago pegged The Athletic as seeking $750 million in a sale. The planted rumors didn’t have their intended goal of creating a bidding war for the sports start-up. Instead, the New York Times, which had been mentioned as an interested suitor last year, got The Athletic to budge. I don’t have too many positive things to say about The Athletic from a business model perspective.
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Tech’s Day of Reckoning Is Being Oversold
Whenever a new calendar year begins, there is an urge to press reset on the news cycle and existing strategies and plans. This doesn’t make much sense considering how, excluding new laws and taxes that may go into effect on January 1, the new year doesn’t usher in changes in marketplace conditions. Nevertheless, there is a psychological benefit found with using the new year to remove oneself from all of the noise and assess the big picture.
In looking back over 2021 to assess the major stories in tech, one topic quickly jumps out at me as having been all-encompassing. It was a very good year for the tech giants when it came to navigating the regulatory and legal landscape. Consider the following developments:
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NFTs and Crypto Are a Backlash to Social Media Wrongs
It is too easy to get caught in the weeds of a topic and in the process lose sight of the big picture. That scenario is occurring with both NFTs and crypto.
At a very simple level, the promise found with NFTs and crypto is said to be about empowering people. Instead of figuring out if NFTs and crypto meet that promise, there is more value found in understanding why such a promise exists in the first place. What tech development has harmed user empowerment to such a degree that NFTs and crypto are said to be needed to put things back on track? My suspicion is the answer will contain a great deal of insight regarding the future.
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House Cameras as Trojan Horses
The more I think about smart homes, the more I’m convinced many of the concepts and ideas that have come to describe the phrase don’t make sense. Examining the smart home’s most publicized “chapters,” one is likely left more confused than anything else.
The late 2010s saw the smart speaker mirage play itself out in the home. Breathless press coverage for a new paradigm shift ushered in by voice computing in the home not surprisingly turned into a head fake. Jump ahead a few years and in 2021, we can’t even say the smart speaker craze fundamentally altered the way we listen to and consume music in the home. The giants are now trying to resurrect whatever is left from the cheap smart speaker craze by using screens and cameras. Speaking of cameras, we are now seeing something of a second craze play out with smart homes when it comes to security cameras. Ring (Amazon) and Nest (Google) are becoming household names while a cottage industry of smaller camera and security companies are also seeing momentum and traction.
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Receive Exclusive Essays. The cornerstone of an Inside Orchard subscription is access to Neil’s weekly essays on the latest developments in the technology industry. Weekly essays are 1,000 words and sent via email on Mondays. Essays revolve around the following topics: technology industry analysis, business model analysis, technology’s impact on societal and consumer trends. A sample essay can be viewed here.
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The YouTube Algorithm’s Slippery Slope
YouTube’s history can be broken into eras symbolized by certain creators. Around 2010, creators like the Shaytards pushed the idea of vlogging. A few videos resembling something of a video diary were uploaded each week for the world to watch. The concept was an evolutionary offshoot of reality TV kicked off years earlier by shows like Survivor.
In 2015, Casey Neistat took the vlogging concept in a new direction by uploading a new video every day. His goal wasn’t to just throw together some clips each day but instead to create a well-edited story with a beginning, climax, and conclusion. The consistent uploads and entertaining videos were well received.
A few years later, Jimmy Donaldson, also known as MrBeast, kicked off the era of what can be described as big money giveaways - taking sponsorship money and giving it away to subscribers.
An Inside Orchard subscription is required to continue reading this essay. Subscribers can read the essay here.
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Inside Orchard Subscriptions
Payment is processed and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. Special bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members.
Subscriber Privileges and Benefits
Receive Exclusive Essays. The cornerstone of an Inside Orchard subscription is access to Neil’s weekly essays on the latest developments in the technology industry. Weekly essays are 1,000 words and sent via email on Mondays. Essays revolve around the following topics: technology industry analysis, business model analysis, technology’s impact on societal and consumer trends. A sample essay can be viewed here.
Access Exclusive Private Podcast. Listen to Inside Orchard essays via an exclusive private podcast. After becoming a paid subscriber, all previously-published podcast episodes become available in your favorite podcast player. Podcast episodes never become available to the public.
Inside Orchard Support. Play an active role in supporting Inside Orchard as an independent source of analysis and perspective. Inside Orchard is 100% supported by its subscribers.
Measuring Tech’s Diffusion in Society
One of the main drivers behind starting Inside Orchard was analyzing how the lines that have traditionally defined technology are being erased. The “tech industry” is a term with a finite lifespan. We are heading to a point where tech will be so diffused in industry that it will be indistinguishable from society as a whole.
A question that has been raised is how to measure such diffusion. The answer can serve as a valuable tool for knowing which industries have either already experienced such diffusion or are about to undergo significant transformation. Get the timing right, and there are significant financial and product strategy rewards up for grabs.
An Inside Orchard subscription is required to continue reading this essay. Subscribers can read the essay here.
(Subscribers: The password for reading exclusive essays is always accessible by logging in and going to Downloads.)
Inside Orchard Subscriptions
Payment is processed and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. Special bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members.
Subscriber Privileges and Benefits
Receive Exclusive Essays. The cornerstone of an Inside Orchard subscription is access to Neil’s weekly essays on the latest developments in the technology industry. Weekly essays are 1,000 words and sent via email on Mondays. Essays revolve around the following topics: technology industry analysis, business model analysis, technology’s impact on societal and consumer trends. A sample essay can be viewed here.
Access Exclusive Private Podcast. Listen to Inside Orchard essays via an exclusive private podcast. After becoming a paid subscriber, all previously-published podcast episodes become available in your favorite podcast player. Podcast episodes never become available to the public.
Inside Orchard Support. Play an active role in supporting Inside Orchard as an independent source of analysis and perspective. Inside Orchard is 100% supported by its subscribers.