Ten Uncomfortable Truths in Tech
We will try something a little bit different this week: Ten uncomfortable truths that are currently found in tech. Each one of these can be turned into their own Inside Orchard essay, and that may very well happen in a few cases. But sometimes value is found in brevity.
The mass market doesn’t care about AI. It won’t come as a surprise that optimism surrounding all things AI is much higher in tech circles than with the general public, where concerns and skepticism remain elevated. Lofty AI-related projections and prognostications ignore how people care more about products than the sheer power found with LLMs. For most people not connected with tech, “AI” is increasingly associated with “Google AI says…,” referring to Google’s AI overviews. This is a big reason why AI mania will need to focus more on product (representing the next AI phase).
Chatty chatbots are a head fake. A byproduct of their shortcomings,
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Something Has Changed With the Tesla Community
The most interesting takeaways and observations from Tesla’s “We, Robot” event weren’t from the event itself, but rather from what unfolded after the event.
Last week, Tesla held its highly anticipated robotaxi event. From an analytical perspective, there wasn’t a whole lot to talk about. The event was geared more toward building aspirations and dreams than unveiling concrete product strategy.
The most interesting takeaways and observations weren’t from the event itself, but rather from what unfolded after the event.
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Receive Exclusive Essays. The cornerstone of an Inside Orchard subscription is access to Neil’s weekly essays on the latest developments in the technology industry. Weekly essays are ~1,000 words and sent via email. Essays revolve around the following topics: technology industry analysis, business model analysis, technology’s impact on societal and consumer trends. Create a free profile to read a few sample essays.
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The Big Tech Rotation of 2024
Things are getting strange. On social media, a feeling of angst has taken over the tech space. Apple and Tesla are said to be on the ropes while calls for Google replacing its CEO are on the rise. Other companies, including Meta and Microsoft, are riding PR highs. AI mania continues to add chaos to the mix. Oh, and Bitcoin is back at all-time highs. The signs support the theory that we are seeing a Big Tech rotation unfolding on Wall Street with carryover effects spilling over into Silicon Valley.
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Receive Exclusive Essays. The cornerstone of an Inside Orchard subscription is access to Neil’s weekly essays on the latest developments in the technology industry. Weekly essays are ~1,000 words and sent via email. Essays revolve around the following topics: technology industry analysis, business model analysis, technology’s impact on societal and consumer trends. Create a free profile to read a few sample essays.
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Tech Questions for 2024
Predictions don’t excite me. They are often lackluster attempts at providing answers to the unknown. To then get the timing behind such predictions correct makes the whole thing a charade with little to no added value. Instead, for the first Inside Orchard essay of 2024, we will embrace the unknown and look at tech questions that are on my mind for 2024.
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Payment is processed by Memberful and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. Special bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members.
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Receive Exclusive Essays. The cornerstone of an Inside Orchard subscription is access to Neil’s weekly essays on the latest developments in the technology industry. Weekly essays are ~1,000 words and sent via email. Essays revolve around the following topics: technology industry analysis, business model analysis, technology’s impact on societal and consumer trends. Create a free profile to read a few sample essays.
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Autonomy Is the Missing EV Piece
News of GM dialing back its EV sales targets wasn’t met with much surprise. Elon Musk’s downbeat Tesla earnings call a week prior had already lowered EV demand expectations. However, the question remains: Is EV demand declining simply because of higher interest rates resulting in higher financing costs? It’s prudent not to box ourselves into such a narrow explanation. Instead, there is a bigger problem at play. EVs are waiting for, and needing, autonomy, but the technology has proven far more difficult to achieve than consensus thought.
With EVs in mind, the role that would be given to autonomy is straightforward.
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Payment is processed and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. Special bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members.
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Receive Exclusive Essays. The cornerstone of an Inside Orchard subscription is access to Neil’s weekly essays on the latest developments in the technology industry. Weekly essays are 1,000 words and sent via email on Thursdays. Essays revolve around the following topics: technology industry analysis, business model analysis, technology’s impact on societal and consumer trends. A sample essay can be viewed here.
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Signs of More EV Trouble Appear
Earlier this week, I was in California to attend the Apple event. In what has now become a routine observation for me, the 15 to 20 Tesla vehicles seen in one city block in Silicon Valley (the Cupertino/Saratoga area to be specific) caught my attention. It’s still a sight to behold for me because in most parts of Connecticut it’s rare to see more than 10 Tesla vehicles on the road in a single week. After I mentioned this on X (Twitter), one response was that all of California is like Silicon Valley in terms of Tesla adoption. Another person said that people in the Northeast signal different virtues. True to form, as soon as I landed in NYC, the sea of huge gas-powered SUVs that rule the roads in the Northeast were in the arrival line at JFK.
My EV anecdotes end up being supported by data. Approximately 17% of Tesla’s 2022 vehicles sales materialized in California.
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Payment is processed and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. Special bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members.
Subscriber Privileges and Benefits
Receive Exclusive Essays. The cornerstone of an Inside Orchard subscription is access to Neil’s weekly essays on the latest developments in the technology industry. Weekly essays are 1,000 words and sent via email on Thursdays. Essays revolve around the following topics: technology industry analysis, business model analysis, technology’s impact on societal and consumer trends. A sample essay can be viewed here.
Access Exclusive Private Podcast. Listen to Inside Orchard essays via an exclusive private podcast. After becoming a paid subscriber, all previously-published podcast episodes become available in your favorite podcast player. Podcast episodes never become available to the public.
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The EV Price War Has Arrived
The auto industry is in a weird place right now. Automakers have benefited from software’s inevitable march into their space. However, the auto space is nowhere near where the tech industry thought it would be by now. In the mid-2010s, autonomy was considered by many to be a problem that would be solved by 2020. Elon Musk positioned full autonomy as a “next year” goal for years although he interestingly stopped making such predictions recently. Now we see signs of a price war unfolding in the electric vehicle (EV) space with Tesla and now Ford looking to cut prices. These developments leave me scratching my head.
Tesla is in an interesting spot. In the second half of 2022, the company saw some cracks form in its growth story.
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Receive Exclusive Essays. The cornerstone of an Inside Orchard subscription is access to Neil’s weekly essays on the latest developments in the technology industry. Weekly essays are ~1,000 words and sent via email. Essays revolve around the following topics: technology industry analysis, business model analysis, technology’s impact on societal and consumer trends. Create a free profile to read a few sample essays.
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Elon Musk Isn’t Twitter’s Problem
Elon Musk continues to make unforced errors as he molds Twitter into his liking. Unnecessary controversies and illogical strategy moves are not only increasing stress and anxiety among some Twitter users, but also clouding what Musk has done correctly. Yes, there actually have been a few positive changes such as the “What’s happening” editorial trends coming to an end.
In finding the top tech story in 2022, the Musk/Twitter saga makes the short list.
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Receive Exclusive Essays. The cornerstone of an Inside Orchard subscription is access to Neil’s weekly essays on the latest developments in the technology industry. Weekly essays are 1,000 words and sent via email on Tuesdays. Essays revolve around the following topics: technology industry analysis, business model analysis, technology’s impact on societal and consumer trends. A sample essay can be viewed here.
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A Luxury Safe Haven
With recession and inflation concerns continuing to build in the tech space, attention has shifted to where pockets of strength will be found. One such pocket may come as a surprise: luxury. At first, the idea of high-priced gadgets and services selling well in a high inflation and slow growth period may seem like a stretch. However, continued supply chain issues and software’s ongoing invasion of new industries bode well for companies playing in the premium sector of the economy.
As inflation trends at close to 40-year highs, the question hasn’t been if households will continue to spend cash in the tech space but rather how they would allocate budgets to make better use of their remaining purchasing power.
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Payment is processed and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. Special bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members.
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Receive Exclusive Essays. The cornerstone of an Inside Orchard subscription is access to Neil’s weekly essays on the latest developments in the technology industry. Weekly essays are 1,000 words and sent via email on Mondays. Essays revolve around the following topics: technology industry analysis, business model analysis, technology’s impact on societal and consumer trends. A sample essay can be viewed here.
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The Electric Car’s Moment Is Delayed (Again)
While much of Silicon Valley remains infatuated with crypto, NFTs, and the metaverse, Wall Street has been lusting over electric vehicles (EVs). In an industry that has experienced a major sales contraction due to supply issues, EV growth of nearly 90% in 2021 has been positioned as nirvana. Legacy auto makers look at EV as an answer to finding relevancy while EV startups are finding it easier than ever to raise new capital. However, not all is bright in EV land.
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Payment is processed and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. Special bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members.
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Receive Exclusive Essays. The cornerstone of an Inside Orchard subscription is access to Neil’s weekly essays on the latest developments in the technology industry. Weekly essays are 1,000 words and sent via email on Mondays. Essays revolve around the following topics: technology industry analysis, business model analysis, technology’s impact on societal and consumer trends. A sample essay can be viewed here.
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Pushing Electric Cars
We were supposed to be in the electric car era right about now. Actually, we were supposed to be in the self-driving electric car era. Instead, we find ourselves in the era of car companies announcing electric car aspirations for the upcoming decade.
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Payment is processed and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. Special bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members.
Subscriber Privileges and Benefits
Receive Exclusive Essays. The cornerstone of an Inside Orchard subscription is access to Neil’s weekly essays on the latest developments in the technology industry. Weekly essays are 1,000 words and sent via email on Mondays. Essays revolve around the following topics: technology industry analysis, business model analysis, technology’s impact on societal and consumer trends. A sample essay can be viewed here.
Access Exclusive Private Podcast. Listen to Inside Orchard essays via an exclusive private podcast. After becoming a paid subscriber, all previously-published podcast episodes become available in your favorite podcast player. Podcast episodes never become available to the public.
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Elon Musk and a New Era of Tech Celebrity
Elon Musk continued his streak of being unlike any other CEO by guest hosting Saturday Night Live this past weekend. For those who have followed Musk over the years, including his Twitter activity, the show went pretty much as one would expect.
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Payment is processed and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. Special bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members.
Subscriber Privileges and Benefits
Receive Exclusive Essays. The cornerstone of an Inside Orchard subscription is access to Neil’s weekly essays on the latest developments in the technology industry. Weekly essays are 1,000 words and sent via email on Mondays. Essays revolve around the following topics: technology industry analysis, business model analysis, technology’s impact on societal and consumer trends. A sample essay can be viewed here.
Access Exclusive Private Podcast. Listen to Inside Orchard essays via an exclusive private podcast. After becoming a paid subscriber, all previously-published podcast episodes become available in your favorite podcast player. Podcast episodes never become available to the public.
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