How Google Lost Its Antitrust Case to the U.S.
Google had a thin line to walk in going up against the U.S. government.
For the second time in eight months, Google lost an antitrust case in the U.S. Following the December 2023 loss to Epic Games, which was more embarrassing than anything for Google, the search giant gave the U.S. government its first antitrust win as part of its anti-Big Tech crusade.
Google had a thin line to walk in going up against the U.S. government. The company needed to talk up its search acumen, but not so much as to imply that no other company could realistically compete. If the court ran with a narrow relevant product market – which it ended up doing – Google would have even less room to breathe. There is no denying that Google holds a monopoly in general search. While holding ~90% market share is legal, the practices and behavior used to retain that 90% market share can be found to be illegal.
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Big Tech Is Winning Over Wall Street
While Wall Street remains fully engrossed by NVIDIA, there is a story to be told that is flying under the radar.
While Wall Street remains fully engrossed by NVIDIA, there is a story to be told that is flying under the radar. With several key macro headwinds now in the rearview mirror, Wall Street has turned decidedly more optimistic on Big Tech (a bucket that I have long defined as including Apple, Alphabet, Meta, Amazon, Microsoft). Big Tech as a group is up 28% in 2024 while the S&P 500 is up 15%.
Here are Big Tech market caps, with NVIDIA added in for good measure:
Microsoft: $3.3T
Apple: $3.2T
NVIDIA: $3.0T
Alphabet: $2.3T
Amazon: $2.0T
Meta: $1.3T
A couple things jump out at me about those totals.
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The Big Tech Rotation of 2024
Things are getting strange. On social media, a feeling of angst has taken over the tech space. Apple and Tesla are said to be on the ropes while calls for Google replacing its CEO are on the rise. Other companies, including Meta and Microsoft, are riding PR highs. AI mania continues to add chaos to the mix. Oh, and Bitcoin is back at all-time highs. The signs support the theory that we are seeing a Big Tech rotation unfolding on Wall Street with carryover effects spilling over into Silicon Valley.
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Tech Questions for 2024
Predictions don’t excite me. They are often lackluster attempts at providing answers to the unknown. To then get the timing behind such predictions correct makes the whole thing a charade with little to no added value. Instead, for the first Inside Orchard essay of 2024, we will embrace the unknown and look at tech questions that are on my mind for 2024.
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Big Tech’s Hardware Paralysis
It’s been a very busy two months for consumer gadget enthusiasts. With Samsung kicking off the fall product cycle earlier than usual in July to Google’s product event in NYC last week, we now have a good view of how tech companies are positioned heading into the holiday season. As the gadget recession rages on while AI mania remains palpable, the way companies are thinking about hardware is splintering, leading to more questions and unknown.
In terms of the underlying themes found with product events (six to be exact – Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Samsung, Apple, and Meta), there is a growing recognition / acceptance that ecosystems will dictate long-term success. Wearables are finally getting the attention they deserve. At the same time, years of Apple ecosystem momentum is front-and-center with most companies. There is no more denying that Apple’s billion-user installed base is a force to be reckoned with. Thoughts of competing with Apple on price are firmly in the rear-view mirror.
Here were more granular takeaways from this year’s fall product event cycle:
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The Absurdity Known as the Digital Markets Act
For the past two years, the European Commission has been formulating a series of regulations aimed at curtailing the tech giants in its 27 member states. Last week, the Digital Markets Act reached a finalized draft stage. While additional steps are needed before the end is reached, we are at a point where the major points of contention have been determined with implementation set to begin later this year. We are seeing the equivalent of the tech giants being taken hostage and told to both open their platforms to perfectly capable competitors and ensure that these same competitors don’t abuse their opportunities to harm consumers. It’s absurdity. There is no other way to describe what we are seeing. Customers in the EU don’t stand to benefit from the regulations. And as we will discuss shortly, a good argument can be made that the giants will be able to navigate the legislation without losing much, if any, momentum in the impacted countries.
At the heart of the issue is EU officials viewing the giants, or so called “gatekeepers,” as blocking or preventing smaller competitors from getting a fair shake.
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Tech’s Growing Ability to Wage Economic Warfare
In the weeks following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, two wars have been waged:
Military (missiles, air strikes, tanks, drones, deaths, injuries, POWs)
Economic (asset seizures, currency pressure, business/export/import bans)
The economic war against Russia is being conducted solely because of Russia’s military invasion of Ukraine. We have seen an unprecedented response from the corporate world in pausing / halting operations in Russia indefinitely. While most of the announcements have been publicly tied to opposition to the Ukraine invasion, others were assumed to be driven by unattractive business conditions tied to currency volatility. In many instances, it ends up being a financially better decision to close shops or offices rather than keep them open.
Concerns remain elevated that we are witnessing a new global order take shape pinning countries and alliances against each other, both militarily and economically.
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The Spotify and Roku Squeeze
Spotify and Roku have a lot more in common than meets the eye (and ear). Both companies are fascinated with advertising-driven business models in which listener and viewer time and engagement is monetized via delivering ads. Roku is much further along in its advertising pursuit. Nearly 90% of Roku’s revenue is generated by ads while just 10% of Spotify revenue is from ads. However, both companies have signaled that advertising is where their growth and momentum will be found.
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Tech’s Day of Reckoning Is Being Oversold
Whenever a new calendar year begins, there is an urge to press reset on the news cycle and existing strategies and plans. This doesn’t make much sense considering how, excluding new laws and taxes that may go into effect on January 1, the new year doesn’t usher in changes in marketplace conditions. Nevertheless, there is a psychological benefit found with using the new year to remove oneself from all of the noise and assess the big picture.
In looking back over 2021 to assess the major stories in tech, one topic quickly jumps out at me as having been all-encompassing. It was a very good year for the tech giants when it came to navigating the regulatory and legal landscape. Consider the following developments:
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The Pivot to Screens and Cameras
In the mid-2010s, the tech industry thought it was onto something. The maturing supply chain from the smartphone revolution had made it easier (and cheaper) than ever to produce small, stand-alone speakers that could be placed in the home. Instead of playing music or talk radio, these speakers would be transformational due to their delivery of digital voice assistants that was made possible by years of cloud and machine learning investments.
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The Future of Digital Tracking
A retailer (Amazon), social media company (Facebook), and information services company (Google) now capture more than half of all advertising spending in the U.S. The Inside Orchard essay “The Advertising Triopoly” focused on how the three were able to reach such a milestone: establish formidable ecosystems powered by not only software, but also customer data. As to where tracking will go from here, change is in the air.
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Receive Exclusive Essays. The cornerstone of an Inside Orchard subscription is access to Neil’s weekly essays on the latest developments in the technology industry. Weekly essays are 1,000 words and sent via email on Mondays. Essays revolve around the following topics: technology industry analysis, business model analysis, technology’s impact on societal and consumer trends. A sample essay can be viewed here.
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The Advertising Triopoly
(The following essay has been made available for all to read. You can share this essay far and wide.)
The press has come to rely on a very wide net when describing “tech” companies. Some of this is to be expected as tech continues to invade new industries. However, there is something wrong found with using “tech” to describe any company making money one way or another from software and data. My stance on “tech” is that it has lost much of its descriptive meaning when it comes to business models and product strategies.
Instead of lumping today’s corporate giants into one massive “tech” bucket, a different categorization based around advertising is more valuable. For the first time, a retailer, social media company, and information services company are grabbing more than half of all advertising spending in the U.S. The pandemic was the catalyst responsible for pushing the three over the 50% mark.
Wall Street doesn’t see any end in sight when it comes to Amazon, Facebook, and Google and their advertising prowess. Accordingly, the press has taken it upon themselves to be the last remaining force of resistance to the three. It is not a coincidence that massive media campaigns have been waged against Amazon, Facebook, and Google. All three have awful narratives and perceptions if going by press coverage. From my position, much of the press outcry and criticism has become too stretched to be any good. The press made one giant mistake in their quest to go after these advertising giants. By turning every little thing into a massive crisis that supposedly was going to bring their downfall, the press cried wolf too much. The end result was valid criticism being watered down to such a degree that readers and listeners became tired with it all. In a way, the press’ attacks have helped strengthen Facebook, Google, and Amazon.
That’s not to say that there isn’t controversy found with the advertising triopoly. Instead, few are able to correctly point out the actual issues. Another way of describing the advertising triopoly is the data triopoly. Consumer-friendly services, most of which are free, are offered with the goal of grabbing consumers’ attention, and by extension, their data. This data is then used to both enhance the underlying services, which results in better and stronger engagement, and attract brands, which have a never-ending craving to get in front of consumers.
There is nothing inherently wrong with the triopoly giving away services (email accounts, cloud storage, video streaming, music streaming, messaging, reviews, business solutions) for free just as there is nothing wrong or evil found with leveraging customer data to enhance or better the service over time. However, there are two primary problems found with the dynamic:
Companies are not being clear and up front with their customers as to what kind of data is being collected and how the collection process works. The average consumer would be shocked to learn how much of their data is actually being collected. It is no longer good enough to collect data about what consumers’ are doing on your own online property. The goal is now to track customers while they are on other online properties.
Companies are building detailed customer profiles in an effort to better compete against other companies.
A good argument can be made that the two preceding problems end up being byproducts of giving services away for free. If services weren’t free but instead paid, the companies offering such services wouldn’t be in as much of a need to build detailed customer profiles or hide their true data collection intentions. However, this view comes across to me as being a bit too cynical. We have not seen what would happen if the advertiser triopoly was actually up front with customers about data collection while making a concerted effort to curtail data collection in an attempt to enhance customer privacy. It is not a guarantee that their advertising grip would actually weaken in such a scenario. Instead, we are left with a company like Apple, sensing no viable solution to the two preceding problems, taking it upon themselves to address the underlying issues.
As for who stands to be the largest business losers from the advertising triopoly, industries that have essentially become commoditized are high on the list. The demise of local newspapers has been well telegraphed. Less focus has been put on how the advertising triopoly holds complete and total responsibility for its destruction and broader problems found with the entire news industry. It is ironic that two of the three advertising companies that make up the triopoly have been trying to “save” the news industry by throwing money at publishers. Unfortunately, such efforts are too little and too late. The simple presence of the advertising triopoly leaves little to no room for a news industry long supported by advertising. (We are going to see continued consolidation in the news industry, including the online space, which should leave enough room for a pretty decent niche publication scene.)
The music industry has similarly come under pressure from the advertising triopoly, not due to declining revenues from streaming but rather from the art form being used and taken advantage of in pursuit of building up ecosystems. Fears of podcasting and video not being too far behind music are valid. There are then niche industries, or at least industries that would seem to be niche, such as restaurant and product reviews, that have been decimated by the advertising triopoly. While an enduring entrepreneur can take a swing or two at these troubled industries, it will likely take massive capital in an effort to grab users and only then would consolidation seem like the inevitable conclusion.
Turning to the government for help with taming the advertising triopoly is easier said than done. The regulatory issue isn’t actually found with what companies are doing with customer data once it is collected, but rather it’s found with the collection of the data in the first place. Examining data collection practices would then unveil a systemic problem found throughout the corporate world with very few exceptions. Breaking up the advertising giants won’t accomplish as much as regulators think. Instead, competition can be intensified by giving customers more control over their data and the collection process. Focusing on the data itself will end up being the best way of equalizing the situation as it was data that gave power to today’s advertising triopoly.
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The Rise of Digital Town Squares
Humans are social creatures. We don’t want to avoid social interaction. There is a gravitation that pulls us together. One characteristic that has been part of the exchange of ideas in the physical world is a social construct to push fringe ideas and opinions to the edges – out of town squares and into back alleys.
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Introducing Inside Orchard
I would like to introduce something that I’ve been building. It’s called Inside Orchard.
Ten years ago, technology was a defined sector with recognizable barriers. Ten years from now, there will be little to no delineation between technology and society as the two become intertwined. Inside Orchard (@InsideOrchard) will be home to my unique perspective on technology and its growing influence on society.
The name “Inside Orchard” is a play on the fruit orchards that eventually became Silicon Valley. Given the ease of focusing too much on any one tree in an orchard, “Inside Orchard” also refers to successfully navigating the noise found in the tech news cycle to focus on the big picture.
It’s getting increasingly difficult to find articles about technology that I feel a connection to and enjoy. Inside Orchard is my outlet for publishing ideas and perspectives that I believe in. I’m confident others will also find immense value in the essays and podcast.
Inside Orchard’s business model will be subscriber based. I want to make the site as accessible to as many people as possible while keeping it sustainable for decades. A subscription is just $10/month or $100/year and includes exclusive early access to written essays as well as access to an exclusive podcast. The first 200 subscribers will receive the distinction of being “Founding Subscribers.”
Inside Orchard will sit next to Above Avalon as a home for my perspective and analysis. While Above Avalon will continue to be dedicated to offering the most comprehensive and accurate analysis of the most influential company in tech (Apple), Inside Orchard will be dedicated to the big picture. A bundle consisting of subscriptions for both Inside Orchard and Above Avalon is available here. Above Avalon members receive a 50% discount on Inside Orchard (just $5/month or $50/year).
A big thank you goes out to my wife Jennifer (@jennifercybart) who drew all of the artwork featured on Inside Orchard. Another thank you goes out to Above Avalon members. Above Avalon success is providing the foundation for Inside Orchard. It’s never been a better time to analyze Apple, and the same applies to the broader technology landscape.
Neil Cybart (@neilcybart)
Founder and Author
Inside Orchard