Tech Questions for 2024
Predictions don’t excite me. They are often lackluster attempts at providing answers to the unknown. To then get the timing behind such predictions correct makes the whole thing a charade with little to no added value. Instead, for the first Inside Orchard essay of 2024, we will embrace the unknown and look at tech questions that are on my mind for 2024.
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Autonomy Is the Missing EV Piece
News of GM dialing back its EV sales targets wasn’t met with much surprise. Elon Musk’s downbeat Tesla earnings call a week prior had already lowered EV demand expectations. However, the question remains: Is EV demand declining simply because of higher interest rates resulting in higher financing costs? It’s prudent not to box ourselves into such a narrow explanation. Instead, there is a bigger problem at play. EVs are waiting for, and needing, autonomy, but the technology has proven far more difficult to achieve than consensus thought.
With EVs in mind, the role that would be given to autonomy is straightforward.
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Payment is processed and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. Special bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members.
Subscriber Privileges and Benefits
Receive Exclusive Essays. The cornerstone of an Inside Orchard subscription is access to Neil’s weekly essays on the latest developments in the technology industry. Weekly essays are 1,000 words and sent via email on Thursdays. Essays revolve around the following topics: technology industry analysis, business model analysis, technology’s impact on societal and consumer trends. A sample essay can be viewed here.
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Signs of More EV Trouble Appear
Earlier this week, I was in California to attend the Apple event. In what has now become a routine observation for me, the 15 to 20 Tesla vehicles seen in one city block in Silicon Valley (the Cupertino/Saratoga area to be specific) caught my attention. It’s still a sight to behold for me because in most parts of Connecticut it’s rare to see more than 10 Tesla vehicles on the road in a single week. After I mentioned this on X (Twitter), one response was that all of California is like Silicon Valley in terms of Tesla adoption. Another person said that people in the Northeast signal different virtues. True to form, as soon as I landed in NYC, the sea of huge gas-powered SUVs that rule the roads in the Northeast were in the arrival line at JFK.
My EV anecdotes end up being supported by data. Approximately 17% of Tesla’s 2022 vehicles sales materialized in California.
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Inside Orchard Subscriptions
Payment is processed and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. Special bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members.
Subscriber Privileges and Benefits
Receive Exclusive Essays. The cornerstone of an Inside Orchard subscription is access to Neil’s weekly essays on the latest developments in the technology industry. Weekly essays are 1,000 words and sent via email on Thursdays. Essays revolve around the following topics: technology industry analysis, business model analysis, technology’s impact on societal and consumer trends. A sample essay can be viewed here.
Access Exclusive Private Podcast. Listen to Inside Orchard essays via an exclusive private podcast. After becoming a paid subscriber, all previously-published podcast episodes become available in your favorite podcast player. Podcast episodes never become available to the public.
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The EV Price War Has Arrived
The auto industry is in a weird place right now. Automakers have benefited from software’s inevitable march into their space. However, the auto space is nowhere near where the tech industry thought it would be by now. In the mid-2010s, autonomy was considered by many to be a problem that would be solved by 2020. Elon Musk positioned full autonomy as a “next year” goal for years although he interestingly stopped making such predictions recently. Now we see signs of a price war unfolding in the electric vehicle (EV) space with Tesla and now Ford looking to cut prices. These developments leave me scratching my head.
Tesla is in an interesting spot. In the second half of 2022, the company saw some cracks form in its growth story.
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Member Privileges and Benefits
Receive Exclusive Essays. The cornerstone of an Inside Orchard subscription is access to Neil’s weekly essays on the latest developments in the technology industry. Weekly essays are ~1,000 words and sent via email. Essays revolve around the following topics: technology industry analysis, business model analysis, technology’s impact on societal and consumer trends. Create a free profile to read a few sample essays.
Access Exclusive Private Podcast. Listen to Inside Orchard essays via an exclusive private podcast. After becoming a member, all previously-published podcast episodes become available in your favorite podcast player. Podcast episodes never become available to the public.
Inside Orchard Support. Play an active role in supporting Inside Orchard as an independent source of analysis and perspective. Inside Orchard is 100% supported by its subscribers.