Big Tech Is Winning Over Wall Street
While Wall Street remains fully engrossed by NVIDIA, there is a story to be told that is flying under the radar.
While Wall Street remains fully engrossed by NVIDIA, there is a story to be told that is flying under the radar. With several key macro headwinds now in the rearview mirror, Wall Street has turned decidedly more optimistic on Big Tech (a bucket that I have long defined as including Apple, Alphabet, Meta, Amazon, Microsoft). Big Tech as a group is up 28% in 2024 while the S&P 500 is up 15%.
Here are Big Tech market caps, with NVIDIA added in for good measure:
Microsoft: $3.3T
Apple: $3.2T
NVIDIA: $3.0T
Alphabet: $2.3T
Amazon: $2.0T
Meta: $1.3T
A couple things jump out at me about those totals.
Become a member today to continue reading. Already a member? Sign in and read the full essay here.
Payment is processed by Memberful and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. Special bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members.
Member Privileges and Benefits
Receive Exclusive Essays. The cornerstone of an Inside Orchard subscription is access to Neil’s weekly essays on the latest developments in the technology industry. Weekly essays are ~1,000 words and sent via email. Essays revolve around the following topics: technology industry analysis, business model analysis, technology’s impact on societal and consumer trends. Create a free profile to read a few sample essays.
Access Exclusive Private Podcast. Listen to Inside Orchard essays via an exclusive private podcast. After becoming a member, all previously-published podcast episodes become available in your favorite podcast player. Podcast episodes never become available to the public.
Inside Orchard Support. Play an active role in supporting Inside Orchard as an independent source of analysis and perspective. Inside Orchard is 100% supported by its subscribers.
It’s Time for Google to Make the Hardware Call
Last week, news broke that Google was reorganizing its devices division. Along with laying off hundreds of employees, Google appears to have admitted defeat with Fitbit as its co-founders are leaving the company after three years. The remaining team is being combined with other HW assets. While the preceding items may surprise some, they all are predictable. In late 2022, we talked about how Google’s HW bet was struggling. We are now at the point when Google should make the call and end its hardware involvement.
An Inside Orchard subscription is required to continue reading this essay. Subscribers can read the essay here.
Inside Orchard Subscriptions
Payment is processed by Memberful and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. Special bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members.
Subscriber Privileges and Benefits
Receive Exclusive Essays. The cornerstone of an Inside Orchard subscription is access to Neil’s weekly essays on the latest developments in the technology industry. Weekly essays are ~1,000 words and sent via email. Essays revolve around the following topics: technology industry analysis, business model analysis, technology’s impact on societal and consumer trends. Create a free profile to read a few sample essays.
Access Exclusive Private Podcast. Listen to Inside Orchard essays via an exclusive private podcast. After becoming a member, all previously-published podcast episodes become available in your favorite podcast player. Podcast episodes never become available to the public.
Inside Orchard Support. Play an active role in supporting Inside Orchard as an independent source of analysis and perspective. Inside Orchard is 100% supported by its subscribers.
Elon Musk Buys Twitter
It’s been quite the April for Elon Musk. Within just three weeks, Musk went from disclosing that he had spent months quietly amassing a 9% stake in Twitter, to accepting and then turning down a Twitter board seat, to finally having Twitter’s board accept his hostile takeover bid for $44 billion.
Musk buying Twitter is a big deal for a few reasons:
An Inside Orchard subscription is required to continue reading this essay. Subscribers can read the essay here.
(Subscribers: The password for reading exclusive essays is always accessible by logging in and going to Downloads.)
Inside Orchard Subscriptions
Payment is processed and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. Special bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members.
Subscriber Privileges and Benefits
Receive Exclusive Essays. The cornerstone of an Inside Orchard subscription is access to Neil’s weekly essays on the latest developments in the technology industry. Weekly essays are 1,000 words and sent via email on Mondays. Essays revolve around the following topics: technology industry analysis, business model analysis, technology’s impact on societal and consumer trends. A sample essay can be viewed here.
Access Exclusive Private Podcast. Listen to Inside Orchard essays via an exclusive private podcast. After becoming a paid subscriber, all previously-published podcast episodes become available in your favorite podcast player. Podcast episodes never become available to the public.
Inside Orchard Support. Play an active role in supporting Inside Orchard as an independent source of analysis and perspective. Inside Orchard is 100% supported by its subscribers.
Measuring Tech’s Diffusion in Society
One of the main drivers behind starting Inside Orchard was analyzing how the lines that have traditionally defined technology are being erased. The “tech industry” is a term with a finite lifespan. We are heading to a point where tech will be so diffused in industry that it will be indistinguishable from society as a whole.
A question that has been raised is how to measure such diffusion. The answer can serve as a valuable tool for knowing which industries have either already experienced such diffusion or are about to undergo significant transformation. Get the timing right, and there are significant financial and product strategy rewards up for grabs.
An Inside Orchard subscription is required to continue reading this essay. Subscribers can read the essay here.
(Subscribers: The password for reading exclusive essays is always accessible by logging in and going to Downloads.)
Inside Orchard Subscriptions
Payment is processed and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. Special bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members.
Subscriber Privileges and Benefits
Receive Exclusive Essays. The cornerstone of an Inside Orchard subscription is access to Neil’s weekly essays on the latest developments in the technology industry. Weekly essays are 1,000 words and sent via email on Mondays. Essays revolve around the following topics: technology industry analysis, business model analysis, technology’s impact on societal and consumer trends. A sample essay can be viewed here.
Access Exclusive Private Podcast. Listen to Inside Orchard essays via an exclusive private podcast. After becoming a paid subscriber, all previously-published podcast episodes become available in your favorite podcast player. Podcast episodes never become available to the public.
Inside Orchard Support. Play an active role in supporting Inside Orchard as an independent source of analysis and perspective. Inside Orchard is 100% supported by its subscribers.
The Pandemic Isn’t Fueling Tech
With the 1Q21 earnings season coming to a close, we have a good view of how the world’s largest companies performed during the first three months of 2021. Impressive would be the word. Consider the following year-over-year revenue growth figures:
Apple: 53%
Facebook: 48%
Amazon: 44%
Alphabet: 34%
Microsoft: 19%
An Inside Orchard subscription is required to continue reading this essay. Subscribers can read the essay here.
(Subscribers: The password for reading exclusive essays is always accessible by logging in and going to Downloads.)
Inside Orchard Subscriptions
Payment is processed and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. Special bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members.
Subscriber Privileges and Benefits
Receive Exclusive Essays. The cornerstone of an Inside Orchard subscription is access to Neil’s weekly essays on the latest developments in the technology industry. Weekly essays are 1,000 words and sent via email on Mondays. Essays revolve around the following topics: technology industry analysis, business model analysis, technology’s impact on societal and consumer trends. A sample essay can be viewed here.
Access Exclusive Private Podcast. Listen to Inside Orchard essays via an exclusive private podcast. After becoming a paid subscriber, all previously-published podcast episodes become available in your favorite podcast player. Podcast episodes never become available to the public.
Inside Orchard Support. Play an active role in supporting Inside Orchard as an independent source of analysis and perspective. Inside Orchard is 100% supported by its subscribers.