Ten Uncomfortable Truths in Tech
We will try something a little bit different this week: Ten uncomfortable truths that are currently found in tech. Each one of these can be turned into their own Inside Orchard essay, and that may very well happen in a few cases. But sometimes value is found in brevity.
The mass market doesn’t care about AI. It won’t come as a surprise that optimism surrounding all things AI is much higher in tech circles than with the general public, where concerns and skepticism remain elevated. Lofty AI-related projections and prognostications ignore how people care more about products than the sheer power found with LLMs. For most people not connected with tech, “AI” is increasingly associated with “Google AI says…,” referring to Google’s AI overviews. This is a big reason why AI mania will need to focus more on product (representing the next AI phase).
Chatty chatbots are a head fake. A byproduct of their shortcomings,
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AI Event Optics Tell a Story
In some ways, OpenAI and Google are polar opposites.
Last week, the 2024 spring cycle of tech events kicked off in earnest. OpenAI livestreamed a “Spring Update” event, and Google held its annual developer conference. As expected, some of my AI fears, which we discussed in last week’s essay, came to fruition. Another thing that jumped out at me was the juxtaposition found with the two AI-infused events. A closer look at event optics provides a story underlying AI mania.
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Payment is processed by Memberful and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. Special bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members.
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Receive Exclusive Essays. The cornerstone of an Inside Orchard subscription is access to Neil’s weekly essays on the latest developments in the technology industry. Weekly essays are ~1,000 words and sent via email. Essays revolve around the following topics: technology industry analysis, business model analysis, technology’s impact on societal and consumer trends. Create a free profile to read a few sample essays.
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AI Mania Is in Full Swing
It’s been intriguing to watch Wall Street and Silicon Valley become enamored by AI. Seemingly every week, we are met with the latest and greatest advancements made possible by AI models. ChatGPT may need to pass the baton over to Sora in terms of capturing hearts and minds. While all may seem well, AI mania is hiding a growing problem involving technology once again outpacing design.
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Receive Exclusive Essays. The cornerstone of an Inside Orchard subscription is access to Neil’s weekly essays on the latest developments in the technology industry. Weekly essays are ~1,000 words and sent via email. Essays revolve around the following topics: technology industry analysis, business model analysis, technology’s impact on societal and consumer trends. Create a free profile to read a few sample essays.
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Sam Altman Mania
Earlier this month, the tech news cycle was overtaken by the attempted board coup at OpenAI. The drama played out on X seemingly minute by minute. After a few days, it became clear the board’s effort ultimately would fall short. At a certain level, many people loved the twists and turns, as if we have been starved of such drama in tech. I guess the Elon Musk drama became a bit tired. Other people thought the OpenAI saga was a riveting inflection point in the AI movement. The company must have achieved such a breakthrough that members of the board were downright frightened by the ramifications. I think all of that will end up being wrong. Instead, we were witness to the Sam Altman show – days of unnecessary drama ultimately initiated by Altman’s behavior and amplified by his masterful command over the startup tech press.
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Receive Exclusive Essays. The cornerstone of an Inside Orchard subscription is access to Neil’s weekly essays on the latest developments in the technology industry. Weekly essays are ~1,000 words and sent via email. Essays revolve around the following topics: technology industry analysis, business model analysis, technology’s impact on societal and consumer trends. Create a free profile to read a few sample essays.
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The Future of Search
The recent chatbot craze fueled by ChatGPT, which needs a good dose of cold water thrown on it, has led to renewed talk of search’s future. Microsoft’s investment in OpenAI led some to conclude that Google should be nervous. The thinking goes that the combination of Bing and massive language models will impact Google’s search dominance. I find such thinking rudimentary at best.
Much of the chatbot craze will fizzle out. We are still in the buzz part of the current curve. It would not be surprising if the fizzle burns out quicker than people are expecting.
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Payment is processed and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. Special bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members.
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Receive Exclusive Essays. The cornerstone of an Inside Orchard subscription is access to Neil’s weekly essays on the latest developments in the technology industry. Weekly essays are 1,000 words and sent via email on Tuesdays. Essays revolve around the following topics: technology industry analysis, business model analysis, technology’s impact on societal and consumer trends. A sample essay can be viewed here.
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Throwing Cold Water on ChatGPT
The late 2010s was witness to one the largest head fakes in consumer technology: voice-first or voice only interfaces. Tech pundits and analysts fumbled over themselves with projections that we would converse with speakers positioned around the house instead of looking at screens. Such an idea even permeated through several tech giants including Amazon and Google.
Scott Galloway, who gained a following in tech circles for his bold predictions, said in 2018 that a third of computing will be done on devices without a screen in 2020, with two thirds of that processed by Alexa. Of course, Galloway was wrong.
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Payment is processed and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. Special bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members.
Subscriber Privileges and Benefits
Receive Exclusive Essays. The cornerstone of an Inside Orchard subscription is access to Neil’s weekly essays on the latest developments in the technology industry. Weekly essays are 1,000 words and sent via email on Tuesdays. Essays revolve around the following topics: technology industry analysis, business model analysis, technology’s impact on societal and consumer trends. A sample essay can be viewed here.
Access Exclusive Private Podcast. Listen to Inside Orchard essays via an exclusive private podcast. After becoming a paid subscriber, all previously-published podcast episodes become available in your favorite podcast player. Podcast episodes never become available to the public.
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