Ten Uncomfortable Truths in Tech
We will try something a little bit different this week: Ten uncomfortable truths that are currently found in tech. Each one of these can be turned into their own Inside Orchard essay, and that may very well happen in a few cases. But sometimes value is found in brevity.
The mass market doesn’t care about AI. It won’t come as a surprise that optimism surrounding all things AI is much higher in tech circles than with the general public, where concerns and skepticism remain elevated. Lofty AI-related projections and prognostications ignore how people care more about products than the sheer power found with LLMs. For most people not connected with tech, “AI” is increasingly associated with “Google AI says…,” referring to Google’s AI overviews. This is a big reason why AI mania will need to focus more on product (representing the next AI phase).
Chatty chatbots are a head fake. A byproduct of their shortcomings,
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The Next AI Phase Is Taking Shape
We are a full two-and-a-half years into current AI mania, and signs point to us entering a new stage. There is a greater focus on product and competition as the most formidable AI start-ups go after branding and users. In addition, Big Tech companies are looking to keep existing users by integrating AI into current offerings.
AI mania could be grouped into three segments or eras:
ChatGPT chatbot comes on the scene. Late 2022. Several factors came together to produce something of an ideal storm including post-pandemic desire for something new and big (with growth in mind). Internal power struggles at OpenAI contributed to the mania by taking over the news cycle. The turmoil was partly driven by the growing fascination that was flowing to ChatGPT.
AI-related capex boom (the NVIDIA surge). 2023-2024. Every Big Tech company except Apple experienced a rethink of their capital expenditures trajectory with AI-driven data centers, cloud infrastructure, and related assets in mind.
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An audio version of this essay is also available to members. Sign in for instructions on getting the private podcast up and running in your favorite podcast player.
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Choose either a monthly or annual membership. Payment is processed by Memberful and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. Special bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members.
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Receive Exclusive Essays. The cornerstone of an Inside Orchard subscription is access to Neil’s weekly essays on the latest developments in the technology industry. Weekly essays are ~1,000 words and sent via email. Essays revolve around the following topics: technology industry analysis, business model analysis, technology’s impact on societal and consumer trends. Create a free profile to read a few sample essays.
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AI Event Optics Tell a Story
In some ways, OpenAI and Google are polar opposites.
Last week, the 2024 spring cycle of tech events kicked off in earnest. OpenAI livestreamed a “Spring Update” event, and Google held its annual developer conference. As expected, some of my AI fears, which we discussed in last week’s essay, came to fruition. Another thing that jumped out at me was the juxtaposition found with the two AI-infused events. A closer look at event optics provides a story underlying AI mania.
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Payment is processed by Memberful and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. Special bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members.
Member Privileges and Benefits
Receive Exclusive Essays. The cornerstone of an Inside Orchard subscription is access to Neil’s weekly essays on the latest developments in the technology industry. Weekly essays are ~1,000 words and sent via email. Essays revolve around the following topics: technology industry analysis, business model analysis, technology’s impact on societal and consumer trends. Create a free profile to read a few sample essays.
Access Exclusive Private Podcast. Listen to Inside Orchard essays via an exclusive private podcast. After becoming a member, all previously-published podcast episodes become available in your favorite podcast player. Podcast episodes never become available to the public.
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2023 Was a Year of Characters
As we wrap up another year, we look back at what comes across as an eventful 2023. Macro issues and lingering COVID talk led to a shaky start. We then saw a fair share of winners (“Barbie” / NVIDIA / OpenAI) and losers (Disney / consumer gadget sales / EVs). While most people would position “AI” as the tech story of the year, there’s something about that decision that doesn’t sit right with me. While AI buzz was certainly alive and well, the actual impact on consumers was less clear. Instead, 2023 came across as the year headlined by characters – Mark Zuckerberg, Elon Musk, Bob Iger, Jensen Huang, Satya Nadella, and Sam Altman. With each, a narrative took hold that came together to give the year a fast-paced news flow.
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Payment is processed by Memberful and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. Special bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members.
Member Privileges and Benefits
Receive Exclusive Essays. The cornerstone of an Inside Orchard subscription is access to Neil’s weekly essays on the latest developments in the technology industry. Weekly essays are ~1,000 words and sent via email. Essays revolve around the following topics: technology industry analysis, business model analysis, technology’s impact on societal and consumer trends. Create a free profile to read a few sample essays.
Access Exclusive Private Podcast. Listen to Inside Orchard essays via an exclusive private podcast. After becoming a member, all previously-published podcast episodes become available in your favorite podcast player. Podcast episodes never become available to the public.
Inside Orchard Support. Play an active role in supporting Inside Orchard as an independent source of analysis and perspective. Inside Orchard is 100% supported by its subscribers.